Rising War of Words Among Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Raises Fears of Military Confrontation

Growing apprehensions have emerged over the potential of military engagement between East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a heated war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in last year that his country's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the defense force, the officer, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Origins of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the war was finished – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened again.