Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
